TOTL - 9M25

Earnings Update 9M25

Overview

TOTL delivered robust results in 9M25, with revenues rising 25.5% year-on-year to Rp2,786b and core net profit surging 63.7% to Rp295b, supported by stronger margins and efficient operations. Assets and liabilities expanded, with core equity up 3.3% year-to-date to Rp1,229b. Contractual commitments stood at Rp4.7 trillion as of September 2025, underpinned by new project additions. The company is also broadening its portfolio beyond high-rise buildings into new industrial, infrastructure, and energy segments to capture long-term growth. TOTL’s share price climbed 45% to Rp985 in October 2025, and with a target of Rp1,215 per share, offers 33.5% upside potential despite ongoing expansion-related and macroeconomic risks.

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

TOTL reported revenues of Rp2,786b and core net profit of Rp295b in 9M25, up significantly by 25.5% (yoy) and 63.7% (yoy), respectively, vs. 9M24. On the balance sheet, total assets and total liabilities have expanded to Rp3,826b and Rp2,599b as of end-September 2025, respectively. In addition, core equity has increased by 3.3% (ytd) to Rp1,229b. Profitability margins, however, have improved in 9M25 vs. 9M24, with GPM, COPM, and CNPM at 19.9%, 12.8%, and 10.6%, respectively. Compared to 6M25, however, the margins have slipped slightly. Meanwhile, Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE) based on trailing-twelve-months (TTM) data have declined to 9.9% and 30.9%, respectively, in 9M25 vs. 6M25, but remain higher than in 12M24.

CONTRACTUAL COMMITMENTS UPDATE

As of September 2025, TOTL's contractual commitments stood at Rp4.7 trillion, slightly lower than the Rp4.8 trillion recorded at end-June 2025. In the third quarter, two projects—Rumah Tinggal Cendana and Edge 2 Phase 2—were started and added to the contract portfolio in Q3/25. Two additional projects that started in June 2025 were also added: South Quarter Residence (Tower E) and Sarana Panin Sport Centre. Conversely, Living World Grand Wisata was removed from the list following its completion. In terms of revenue contributions, PT STT GDC Indonesia (Iris 2 and Iris 3 projects) contributed 23.5% to TOTL's revenues in 9M25, followed by PT Pembangunan Property Nusantara at 7.8%.

EXPANDING BEYOND HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS

TOTL plans to expand its portfolio by adding ten new business activities to its existing operations. These include telecommunication centre construction, water resources infrastructure, non-fishery ports, oil and gas, mining and geothermal civil structures, sports facility construction, chemical and petrochemical processing, pharmaceutical industry civil structures, and other industrial and general civil projects. This expansion opens growth opportunities amid increasing demand for diversified infrastructure and construction services, while also exposing TOTL to execution risks, competitive pressure, and economic sensitivities. With careful risk management and strategic scaling, this diversification has the potential to enhance resilience and long-term growth.

VALUATION

Reflecting strong performance and growth initiatives, TOTL's share price surged nearly 45% to Rp985 in October 2025. The stock currently trades at attractive multiples: PRR (TTM) 0.9x, PER (TTM) 9.5x, and PBV (MRQ) 2.8x. Our blended valuation—integrating price multiples, dividend discount model, and discounted cash flow—suggests a target price of Rp1,215 per share, representing 33.5% upside potential. The new target price implies PRR (TTM) 1.2x, PER (TTM) 12.7x, and PBV (MRQ) 3.7x. Risks include project execution delays, muted domestic GDP growth impacting demand, and related to TOTL's expansion plan, limited experience in new sectors and potential focus dilution, which could pose initial execution challenges.